How close are we to the end of the world as we know it?

Frontier models are outpacing governance. Labour displacement, autonomous weapons and loss-of-control scenarios all sit on the same curve.

Arms control treaties have lapsed, warhead modernisation is accelerating, and multiple nuclear-armed states are in active confrontation.

State actors are pre-positioned inside power, water and telecom networks. The first move of the next war is unlikely to be kinetic.

Record ocean heat is loading the dice for compound events: floods, drought and cyclones arriving in the same season.

Synthetic media is now cheaper than truth. Shared reality is the substrate every other response depends on.

A 75% chance of a major rupture within 50 years, with an 82% chance it is M8+. The South Island would be cut in pieces for weeks.

Chokepoint shipping, chip concentration and just-in-time inventory. Most cities hold roughly three days of food on shelves.

Simultaneous flashpoints in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. Alliance tripwires make local wars go global.

Gabrielle was the costliest disaster in NZ history. Warmer seas mean ex-tropical systems arrive further south, more often.

Gene synthesis is cheap and increasingly automated. Engineered pathogens are now a garage-scale risk, not a state-scale one.

Fuel, pharmaceuticals and fertiliser almost entirely imported, with no refinery. A shipping disruption is a national event.

Contested elections, political violence and institutional distrust across multiple major democracies at the same time.

Aquifer depletion, fertiliser dependence and simultaneous breadbasket failures. Four countries supply most of the world's exported grain.

Sovereign debt loads at wartime highs during peacetime. Currency confidence is the thin layer holding the system together.

A dry-year hydro system, no domestic refinery, and roughly three weeks of onshore fuel cover for the whole country.

Aotearoa sits on the plate boundary. The Alpine Fault has a high probability of rupture within the next 50 years.

A slow-motion pandemic. Routine surgery and childbirth get dangerous again as last-line antibiotics fail faster than replacements arrive.

Ageing transformers with multi-year lead times, rising load from electrification and AI datacentres. Cascading failure is the failure mode.

The subduction zone off the East Coast can produce a local tsunami arriving in minutes. Long or strong, get gone.

Foot-and-mouth or a major horticultural pest would halt exports overnight. Primary industry is over 80% of goods exports.

A Carrington-class storm would take down transformers, satellites and GPS. Live geomagnetic activity is tracked below.

Armed drones and autonomous ground systems are being fielded faster than the rules that govern them. Human-in-the-loop is eroding.

X-class flares black out HF radio and GPS within minutes of the light arriving — no warning time, unlike a CME.

Twelve monitored volcanic systems, including the Auckland field and the Taupō caldera. Alert levels are read live from GeoNet.

A live count of significant earthquakes worldwide, plus the largest magnitude recorded in the past day.

A high-altitude detonation or severe solar event would strand a modern grid for months. Almost nothing critical is hardened.

Low probability, absolute consequence. Live count of near-Earth objects passing today, and how many are flagged hazardous.