Global · Climate
Food & Water Security
SevereSimultaneous failure of major food-producing regions, or of the fertiliser and water systems they depend on.
- Likelihood
- Moderate and rising
- Impact
- Existential in extreme scenarios; severe otherwise
- Horizon
- Now to 30 years
Background
What this actually is
Global grain export is dominated by a handful of countries. A synchronous drought across two or three of them — a 'multiple breadbasket failure' — is a scenario reinsurers and central banks now model explicitly.
Modern yields depend on synthetic nitrogen made from natural gas, and phosphate mined in a few locations. Fertiliser is therefore an energy and geopolitics problem before it is an agricultural one, as the 2022 price spike demonstrated.
Groundwater depletion is the quiet part: major aquifers supporting irrigation in India, China and the United States are being drawn down faster than they recharge.
Aotearoa
What it means for New Zealand
New Zealand produces enough food for roughly 40 million people, so domestic calorie supply is not the risk. The risk is inputs and distribution: imported urea and phosphate, imported diesel, imported machinery parts, and a processing and freight system built for export rather than domestic distribution. A global food crisis would raise NZ export earnings while raising local prices.
Watch for
Early warning signs
- FAO Food Price Index rising sharply
- Export bans imposed by major producing countries
- Simultaneous drought declarations across multiple grain regions
- Fertiliser price spikes
Action
How to prepare
- 01
Grow something, even a little — the skill matters more than the yield
- 02
Keep a staple store: rice, oats, legumes, oil, salt, in rotation
- 03
Preserve, freeze and store what is in season locally
- 04
Water storage for the garden as well as for drinking
Go deeper
Where to find more information
In an emergency
New Zealand's official channels
- Get Ready — household preparedness
- Civil Defence / NEMA
- GeoNet — quakes, volcanoes, tsunami
- MetService severe weather warnings
In a life-threatening emergency call 111. RNZ National is New Zealand's designated lifeline broadcaster — keep a battery radio.
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