Global · Conflict
Great Power War
SevereA conventional war between major powers that draws in alliance networks and global trade.
- Likelihood
- Moderate this decade
- Impact
- Civilisation-changing; total disruption of trade
- Horizon
- Now to 10 years
Background
What this actually is
Three flashpoints are live simultaneously: Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. Each involves at least one nuclear-armed state and a web of defence commitments that convert a local war into a bloc conflict.
The Indo-Pacific scenario matters most to New Zealand. A conflict over Taiwan would close or make insurable-only the shipping lanes that carry the majority of NZ's imports, and would immediately halt semiconductor supply worldwide.
Modern great-power war would not look like 1939. It opens with cyber and space-based attacks on logistics, navigation and power. Civilian infrastructure is a first-day target because it is the cheapest way to degrade an opponent.
Aotearoa
What it means for New Zealand
NZ has no meaningful strategic stockpile and is at the far end of every supply line. A Pacific conflict raises shipping insurance to prohibitive levels within days. Fuel, pharmaceuticals, fertiliser, machinery parts and electronics all stop or triple in price. NZ's defence force is small and would be committed to alliance obligations rather than domestic resilience.
Watch for
Early warning signs
- Embassy evacuations and civilian departure advisories
- Naval exercises converted into standing deployments
- Shipping insurers withdrawing cover for a region
- Export controls on strategic goods tightening rapidly
Action
How to prepare
- 01
Treat fuel and pharmaceutical supply as the binding constraint — keep a personal buffer of both
- 02
Reduce dependence on imported consumables where a local substitute exists
- 03
Hold some cash; payment networks are attractive early targets
- 04
Know your community's food producers by name
Go deeper
Where to find more information
In an emergency
New Zealand's official channels
- Get Ready — household preparedness
- Civil Defence / NEMA
- GeoNet — quakes, volcanoes, tsunami
- MetService severe weather warnings
In a life-threatening emergency call 111. RNZ National is New Zealand's designated lifeline broadcaster — keep a battery radio.
Connected
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