Global · Biological
Bioweapons & Pandemics
SevereEngineered or naturally emerging pathogens capable of causing a pandemic worse than COVID-19.
- Likelihood
- Moderate; rising with biotechnology access
- Impact
- Existential in the worst case
- Horizon
- Now to 20 years
Background
What this actually is
Two converging trends drive this. Natural spillover risk is increasing with land-use change and intensive animal farming — H5N1 avian influenza is currently circulating in mammals at unprecedented scale. Separately, gene synthesis has become cheap, fast and largely unscreened.
The Biological Weapons Convention has no verification mechanism and a staff smaller than a suburban dairy. Enforcement is effectively voluntary.
The dangerous combination is a pathogen with a long asymptomatic infectious period and high fatality. COVID-19 was mild by the standards of what is biologically possible, and the global response to it demonstrated that the coordination problem, not the science, is the bottleneck.
Aotearoa
What it means for New Zealand
Isolation is a genuine advantage — border closure works better here than almost anywhere. But NZ imports essentially all of its pharmaceuticals through Pharmac-managed supply chains with limited stock depth, has a small ICU capacity per capita, and depends on air freight that stops in a severe pandemic. The 2020-22 experience showed both the strength of the geography and the fragility of the supply.
Watch for
Early warning signs
- H5N1 or similar showing sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission
- WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern declarations
- Unusual clusters of severe respiratory illness reported by ProMED
- Border health measures reappearing in neighbouring countries
Action
How to prepare
- 01
Keep P2/N95 masks and rapid tests at home — they are cheap and have long shelf life
- 02
Hold a longer buffer of any prescription medicine you depend on
- 03
Be able to work, school and shop without leaving home for several weeks
- 04
Stay current on vaccinations; they are the highest-leverage individual action
Go deeper
Where to find more information
In an emergency
New Zealand's official channels
- Get Ready — household preparedness
- Civil Defence / NEMA
- GeoNet — quakes, volcanoes, tsunami
- MetService severe weather warnings
In a life-threatening emergency call 111. RNZ National is New Zealand's designated lifeline broadcaster — keep a battery radio.
Connected
Related threats
Get prepared
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