Methodology
How the index works
Every number on this site is reassessed every 24 hours: seven threats read official live data feeds, and all 27 baselines are re-scored each sync by an AI analyst briefed with the fresh sensor readings plus headline digests from official sources (CISA, WHO, USGS). This page documents the exact formulas, sources and assumptions. It is an awareness tool, not a forecast.
Structure
Threat scores, step by step
- 01Each of the 27 tracked threats starts with a baseline severity from 0–100, set from expert assessment (see sources below). Every 24 hours an AI analyst pass re-scores all 27 baselines against current world conditions and the freshly synced sensor readings — nothing on the board is left stale.
- 02Where a public live feed exists — 7 of the 27 threats — the server converts the raw measurement into a 0–100 live score using the formulas documented on this page.
- 03The two are blended: 45% baseline, 55% live signal. Threats without a live feed show their baseline unchanged.
- 04Scores are bucketed into four risk bands: Watch, Elevated, Severe, Critical.
- 05The Doomsday Clock maps the average of all 27 threat scores onto minutes remaining before midnight.
Formula
The blending calculation
score = baseline × 0.45 + liveScore × 0.55 (when a live feed exists)
score = baseline (all other threats)
overall index = mean(all 27 threat scores)
minutes to midnight = max(0.2, (100 − overall) × 0.15)The 45/55 weighting deliberately lets the live data lead: when the ground shakes or the magnetometer spikes, the score moves with it, while the baseline keeps a quiet feed from ever reading as zero risk. The clock mapping takes the average index — an index of 100 is midnight — and spreads the remainder over 15 minutes, the same convention as the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock.
Metaphor
What 'minutes to midnight' means
The clock is a shorthand, not a timer. Midnight represents the end of the world as we know it — the point where civilisation's basic systems stop functioning for most people. The minutes shown are derived from the current average threat score: the higher the index, the closer the hands move to midnight. An index of 0 would read as 15 minutes to midnight; an index of 100 is midnight itself. It does not predict a date — it summarises how stressed the global and local risk posture looks right now.
Bands
What the labels mean
Bands are descriptive, not predictive. "Severe" means the threat posture is historically elevated — not that an event is imminent on any given day.
Live feeds
Each live signal, exactly as calculated
Six threats read public instrument data. Every formula below is the literal calculation in the code; "clamp" pins the result between 0 and 100.
Global Seismicity
USGS Earthquake Hazards Program- Measures
- All M4.5+ earthquakes worldwide, trailing 24h
- Formula
score = clamp(20 + count×3 + (maxMag − 4.5)×12)- In plain terms
- Each significant quake adds 3 points; the day's largest event adds 12 points per magnitude unit above 4.5.
NZ Earthquakes
GeoNet (GNS Science / MBIE)- Measures
- Felt quakes (MMI ≥ 3) in New Zealand, trailing 24h
- Formula
score = clamp(38 + count×5 + (maxMag − 3)×8)- In plain terms
- Baseline of 38 reflecting NZ's permanent seismic exposure; each felt quake adds 5, and the largest event adds 8 per magnitude unit above 3.
NZ Volcanic Activity
GeoNet Volcanic Alert Level (VAL) system- Measures
- Highest VAL across 12 monitored volcanic systems
- Formula
score = [20, 42, 58, 78, 90, 100][VAL]- In plain terms
- A direct lookup from the official alert level: VAL 0 (quiet) scores 20, a major eruption (VAL 4–5) scores 90–100.
Coronal Mass Ejection
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center- Measures
- Planetary K-index (Kp), latest 3-hour reading
- Formula
score = clamp(24 + Kp×9)- In plain terms
- Kp 0–4 (quiet to unsettled) keeps the score near baseline; a G4 storm at Kp 8 scores ~96. Labels follow NOAA's G-scale.
Asteroid Impact
NASA Near-Earth Object Web Service (NeoWs)- Measures
- Close approaches today, hazardous flags, closest miss distance
- Formula
score = clamp(12 + hazardous×14 + (closest < 5 lunar distances ? 25 : 0))- In plain terms
- Each potentially hazardous asteroid passing today adds 14; anything threading inside 5 lunar distances adds a further 25.
Solar Flare Activity
NOAA GOES primary X-ray sensor- Measures
- Peak 0.1–0.8nm X-ray flux, trailing 24h
- Formula
score = 24 if B-class · 40 if C · 62 if M · 88 if X- In plain terms
- Stepped by flare class: each decade of flux (C → M → X) roughly doubles severity. X-class means HF radio and GPS blackouts.
Severe Weather
NASA EONET (Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker)- Measures
- Active severe storm systems tracked worldwide, right now
- Formula
score = clamp(34 + activeStorms×6)- In plain terms
- Every currently active severe storm system adds 6 points on top of a climate-loaded baseline of 34.
Baselines
The other 20 threats
Most existential risks have no instrument to read — there is no sensor for "how close is nuclear war". These threats hold a baseline informed by current expert assessment, reassessed every 24 hours by an AI analyst pass on the server (see Sync cadence below). If that pass is ever unavailable the scores fall back to the reference baselines below:
Baselines are informed by public expert sources including the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Global Challenges Foundation's Global Catastrophic Risks report, the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, NZ's National Emergency Management Agency, and GNS Science fault studies (see references).
Refresh
Sync cadence and cost
Once per 24-hour UTC window (the same fixed schedule for every visitor) the server does a full reassessment: every live feed is re-synced, then a single AI analyst call re-scores all 27 threat baselines given the current date, world conditions, the fresh sensor readings and headline digests pulled from official sources at the same moment (CISA cybersecurity advisories, WHO disease outbreak news, and USGS significant-event reports) — so every threat, sensor-backed or not, is reassessed against something authoritative at each sync. That same pass writes a short situation note per threat, shown at the top of each full briefing, so the briefings update with the sync when something has actually changed. The result is served from memory for every visitor after the first — at most two upstream pulls per feed and two AI call per day. Browsers cache the result for the same 24 hours and never refetch on tab focus. If the AI pass fails, baselines fall back to the static expert values, so the board never goes blank. The whole site is static apart from those reads, so running costs are near zero.
References
Sources and further reading
- Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists — Doomsday Clock
- Global Challenges Foundation — Global Catastrophic Risks report
- USGS Earthquake Catalog & real-time feeds
- GeoNet — NZ earthquakes, volcanoes & alert levels
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center — scales & data
- NASA CNEOS — Near-Earth Object program
- NEMA — NZ disaster risk & Get Ready guidance
- GNS Science — Alpine Fault research (AF8)
- WHO — Antimicrobial resistance fact sheet
- IPCC — Sixth Assessment Report
- NASA EONET — natural event tracker
- CISA — cybersecurity advisories
- WHO — disease outbreak news
The only useful response to any of these numbers is the boring one: water, food, power, comms, a plan and people who know it.
Get prepared
Want to do something useful with this information?
Preparing.nz is a practical guide for New Zealanders who want to be ready for the unexpected — earthquakes, storms, power cuts, pandemics and more.