Global · Society

Information Collapse

Severe

Breakdown of a shared factual basis for public decision-making, driven by synthetic media and platform incentives.

64/ 100 risk index
Likelihood
Already advanced
Impact
Severe; degrades response to every other threat
Horizon
Now

Background

What this actually is

Generative models have made convincing fake audio, video and text essentially free. The most damaging effect is not that people believe fakes — it is the 'liar's dividend', where genuine evidence can be dismissed as fabricated.

Simultaneously, local journalism has collapsed economically while attention has concentrated in a few algorithmic platforms optimised for engagement rather than accuracy.

This is a threat multiplier. Every item on this board requires coordinated public response, and coordinated response requires shared facts. In an emergency, bad information kills people directly.

Aotearoa

What it means for New Zealand

New Zealand's media market is small and shrinking — Newshub closed in 2024, and regional coverage has thinned dramatically. During Cyclone Gabrielle, communications outages meant rumour filled the gap. NEMA and Civil Defence use official channels that many people do not follow until they need them.

Watch for

Early warning signs

  • Viral emergency claims that no official source confirms
  • Synthetic audio or video of officials during a crisis
  • Coordinated inauthentic activity around elections or disasters

Action

How to prepare

  1. 01

    Bookmark official sources now: NEMA, GeoNet, MetService, your regional council, RNZ

  2. 02

    In an emergency, believe the official channel over the group chat

  3. 03

    Verify unexpected requests for money or credentials by calling a number you already had

  4. 04

    Keep a battery radio — RNZ National is the designated lifeline broadcaster and works when nothing else does

Go deeper

Where to find more information

In an emergency

New Zealand's official channels

In a life-threatening emergency call 111. RNZ National is New Zealand's designated lifeline broadcaster — keep a battery radio.

Connected

Related threats

Get prepared

Want to do something useful with this information?

Preparing.nz is a practical guide for New Zealanders who want to be ready for the unexpected — earthquakes, storms, power cuts, pandemics and more.

Visit preparing.nz