Global · Society
Civil Unrest & Democratic Breakdown
SeverePolitical violence, contested elections and erosion of institutional trust across major democracies.
- Likelihood
- Elevated globally; low-moderate in NZ
- Impact
- Severe; undermines collective response capacity
- Horizon
- Now to 10 years
Background
What this actually is
Long-running indices of democratic quality have recorded consecutive years of global decline. Contested election results, political violence, and declining trust in courts, media and public health institutions are appearing together in countries that were considered stable.
Economic pressure is the common driver: housing costs, stagnant real incomes and visible inequality reliably precede unrest. Add a disaster or a fuel shock and latent grievance becomes acute.
The consequence for other threats is that response capacity depends on legitimacy. A population that does not trust its institutions will not follow evacuation orders, health guidance or rationing.
Aotearoa
What it means for New Zealand
New Zealand ranks highly on democratic and low-corruption indices, but the 2022 Parliament occupation showed that organised distrust exists here too. Cost-of-living pressure, housing unaffordability and declining trust in media are all present. NZ Police are not routinely armed, which is a strength that depends on consent being maintained.
Watch for
Early warning signs
- Sustained decline in trust surveys and voter turnout
- Political violence or threats against officials becoming normalised
- Emergency powers used routinely rather than exceptionally
- Rapid deterioration in cost-of-living measures
Action
How to prepare
- 01
Know your neighbours — social cohesion at street level is the most reliable protection there is
- 02
Join or support a local community response group or marae-based network
- 03
Keep essentials so you are not competing for scarce goods in a panic
Go deeper
Where to find more information
In an emergency
New Zealand's official channels
- Get Ready — household preparedness
- Civil Defence / NEMA
- GeoNet — quakes, volcanoes, tsunami
- MetService severe weather warnings
In a life-threatening emergency call 111. RNZ National is New Zealand's designated lifeline broadcaster — keep a battery radio.
Connected
Related threats
Get prepared
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