Global · Economic
Supply Chain Failure
SevereFailure of the just-in-time global logistics system that keeps food, fuel and goods flowing.
- Likelihood
- High — partial failures are already routine
- Impact
- Severe to civilisation-changing
- Horizon
- Ongoing
Background
What this actually is
Global trade runs through a small number of chokepoints: Suez, Panama, Hormuz, Malacca, Taiwan Strait. Each has been disrupted in the last five years by conflict, drought or attack. Redundancy was engineered out of the system in exchange for cost.
Inventory is the buffer that no longer exists. Most supermarkets hold two to three days of stock and rely on multiple deliveries a day. The system is extremely efficient and has almost no tolerance for shock.
Concentration compounds it: a handful of fabs make advanced chips, a handful of countries make most active pharmaceutical ingredients, and a handful of ports handle most container volume.
Aotearoa
What it means for New Zealand
New Zealand is the most supply-exposed developed economy in the world by distance. Roughly 99% of imports arrive by sea, on services that treat NZ as a spur off Australian routes. There is no oil refinery since Marsden Point closed in 2022, meaning all refined fuel is imported. Fuel stock holdings are in the order of weeks.
Watch for
Early warning signs
- Shipping rate indices spiking (Baltic Dry, Drewry container index)
- Carriers dropping or rerouting NZ services
- Supermarket gaps that persist beyond a week
- Fuel company allocation notices
Action
How to prepare
- 01
Keep a rolling two-to-four week pantry of what you actually eat, and rotate it
- 02
Keep vehicles above half a tank as a habit
- 03
Identify local growers, butchers and markets before you need them
- 04
Know which of your medicines and consumables have no local substitute
Go deeper
Where to find more information
In an emergency
New Zealand's official channels
- Get Ready — household preparedness
- Civil Defence / NEMA
- GeoNet — quakes, volcanoes, tsunami
- MetService severe weather warnings
In a life-threatening emergency call 111. RNZ National is New Zealand's designated lifeline broadcaster — keep a battery radio.
Connected
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