Global · Space
Solar Flare Activity
ElevatedIntense bursts of solar X-ray radiation that disrupt radio, GPS and satellites within minutes and with no warning.
- Likelihood
- X-class flares occur regularly around solar maximum
- Impact
- Moderate to severe; short duration
- Horizon
- Now — current solar cycle is active
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Background
What this actually is
A solar flare is electromagnetic radiation, so it arrives at the speed of light. There is no warning: the first indication is the effect itself. This distinguishes it from a CME, which takes a day or more to travel.
The immediate consequences are high-frequency radio blackouts on the sunlit side of Earth, GPS positioning errors, and increased radiation exposure for aircraft on polar routes. Satellites can be degraded or lost.
Flares often accompany CMEs, so a strong X-class flare is also an early indicator to check whether a geomagnetic storm is inbound behind it.
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What it means for New Zealand
Aviation and maritime HF communications across the South Pacific are affected, and precision GPS matters more here than most people realise — it underpins agriculture, surveying, aviation approaches, and the timing signals used by the power grid and financial systems.
Watch for
Early warning signs
- NOAA GOES X-ray flux crossing M and X class thresholds
- R-scale radio blackout alerts from SWPC
- Large, magnetically complex sunspot groups facing Earth
Action
How to prepare
- 01
Have a non-GPS way to navigate and a non-digital way to know the time
- 02
Expect brief comms and positioning disruption rather than lasting damage
- 03
If a flare is followed by a CME warning, shift to the extended power outage plan
Go deeper
Where to find more information
In an emergency
New Zealand's official channels
- Get Ready — household preparedness
- Civil Defence / NEMA
- GeoNet — quakes, volcanoes, tsunami
- MetService severe weather warnings
In a life-threatening emergency call 111. RNZ National is New Zealand's designated lifeline broadcaster — keep a battery radio.
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